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As we enter into my favorite part of the fantasy baseball season, draft season, I find myself watching dozens of draft boards and strategies, wondering why certain teams implore certain strategies or lack thereof. Hence the reason for this article. Over my 20+ seasons of playing fantasy baseball, I have used a handful of various strategies but will pick out just a few to talk about in this article. That being said, if you have a specific strategy you would like to discuss, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. The idea behind this article will be to give a general overview of a couple of strategies I’ve used but not dig too deep into giving actual examples. Let me also preface all of these strategies by stating the examples I will list are specific to Dynasty Sports Empire (DSE) rules and game-play.
Stars and Scrubs
For this strategy to work, you will need to wheel and deal draft picks. The idea is to acquire additional 4th, 5th, 7th, and 9th round draft picks – I will get into why those four rounds specifically shortly. To obtain these extra picks, you will need to trade away credit currency draft picks, rounds 1 thru 3, as well as additional free-agent picks. I specifically highlight those four rounds because I have generally found, in start-up leagues, that I have gotten the most value out of players in those rounds based on my rankings of 14-team startups. Now, if how you compile your rankings finds better value in round 6/7 or 7/8 or any other two rounds, by all means, slot those in place of the 7th and 9th I listed above. I will say the ultimate idea would be to acquire multiple 4th and 5th round picks but given what you have to trade with, you’ll be hard-pressed to find multiple trade partners willing to give up those rounds after you’ve traded away your top 3 picks. Once you’re done wheeling and dealing, you may be asking what do you target? Great question!
If you follow the idea of taking the best available player, you can almost certainly walk away with five solid bats, four reliable front-end starts, and two closers in the first seven free-agent rounds. Now, after round 9 or 10, because of the trades you will need to put together, your next pick very well may not be until rounds 15 to 17, so at that point, you will be filling your roster with high-upside players and filling in the gaps with warm bodies at the end of the draft. I’ve always been a fan of taking the best available player on the board at my pick instead of specifically targeting a player or position. However, because of how many leagues I’m in and how well I know so many DSE owners, I will, admittedly, adjust my projections on-the-fly, especially if I see certain owners between two of my picks. That leads to another tangent topic – adjusting of projections.
Projections are not perfect. They are, literally, a forecast of a future situation. Because of this, I will tier my projections before all drafts and group players together that I find similar value in so when my next pick comes up; I can evaluate what players are being selected and make my selection based on both the “best available player – within my tier” and what is needed at that point in the draft. How many tiers and how many players within a tier is entirely up to your style of play, but I’ll generally tier my rankings by the number of rounds in a draft. I will also monitor how other teams are drafting to give me a better idea of what players may come off the board before my next pick.
Go Young and Wait
I’ve used this strategy a couple of times, although usually with orphan teams. I will say the first and most obvious downside to this strategy is the wait. Before committing to this strategy, you need to expect, at minimum, a 2 to 3-year delay before you can start competing. That being said, to go this route, you essentially are doing the exact opposite of the stars and scrubs method in that you will be trying to acquire as many minors rounds picks as possible. You’ll be selling 4th thru 10th round picks to the highest bidders for both this and next season. Ideally, your return will include upwards of 12 picks in rounds 1 thru 3 this season and, hopefully, 3 to 4 additional picks for next season in the same rounds. During these first three rounds, the idea would be to target a balanced mix of high-end prospects. I usually suggest taking the best available prospects on the board, but since you are essentially building your team through the minors, try to put together a mix of power and speed on the hitting side and front-end starts with potential closers on the pitching side.
Similar to the “Stars and Scrubs” strategy, this “Go Young and Wait” approach requires projections, but more specifically, prospect and sleeper projections. Projecting prospects can be very subjective, so the best advice I can offer to people starting is to read everything you can, from every expert and every blog site. Sleeper projections are, in my opinion, slightly easier to calculate because you have data from previous seasons you can look at and forecast the upcoming season. However, you may be more of a prospect-minded fantasy player and find prospect rankings easier, in which case there are very reliable sites that project sleepers – DSE being one, for example!
P-n-U (Prospects and Upside)
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This P-n-U strategy isn’t too dissimilar from the “Go Young and Wait” strategy, but one minor twist – I don’t “sell the farm” to acquire as many picks in the first three rounds. Yes, I will look to acquire additional picks in rounds 1 thru 3; however, I generally have no intention of moving my 4th thru 6th round picks unless, of course, it will net me multiple first-round picks. In the past, I have acquired 4+ first-round picks, but as you can imagine, it cost me some serious free-agent picks. I will also say, in the leagues where I made those trades, they were not 14-team leagues, but rather 16-team and 30-team leagues. My strategy was to acquire as many high-end prospects on the verge of being major-league ready and, of course, hope they all panned out. Time will tell if I made a smart move or if I’ll be tearing them down but, so far, I’m encouraged by the team I’ve put together and have high hopes for the future of both teams. Of course, the COVID 2020 season put a wrinkle in both of those startup leagues, so I’ll be re-booting a similar strategy with the 2021 drafts in those leagues.
Balanced Approach
The balanced approach requires you to calculate how many of each category you will need to either win or, at least, be in the top-3. Essentially with this strategy, you will not be making too many, if any, trades before the draft. However, you may find yourself wanting to either move up and slide back during the draft depending on where the value lies in each round. Because this strategy will have you counting stats as you move through the draft, keeping an eye on where each of your categories stands and what’s still available will require you to be more of a “Johnny-on-the-spot” trade seeker.
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While this strategy can be applied to both ROTO and head-to-head, it is one of the more popular, if not the most popular, ROTO strategy. A quick example of this strategy would be to say in a 14-team, 6×6 league; you will need approximately 1400 runs, 550 2B/3B, 450 home runs, 1375 RBI’s, 120 stolen bases, .350 OBP, 130 quality-starts, 2400 strikeouts, 95 saves, 130 holds, 3.75 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP to win each of those categories. So using these numbers as benchmarks with every player you draft, you will be adding to these categories, based on that player’s projections, in hopes to hit those numbers in as many categories as possible.
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PS3 (Power, Speed, Strikeouts, and Saves)
This strategy, which I have affectionately called PS3 (no affiliation to Sony, of course), is a simplified derivative of the balanced approach strategy listed above. With this strategy, you will be focusing on four primary categories – power, speed, strikeouts, saves – to win. I will also say you should only consider this strategy in head-to-head leagues because focusing on 4 out of the 12 categories in ROTO is not smart. In head-to-head leagues, by you focusing on four categories, you will essentially be collecting: home runs, RBI’s, runs, stolen bases, OBP, strikeouts, saves, ERA, WHIP, and wins; giving you a legitimate shot at the playoffs and finishing in the money.
Punting of Categories
Let me start by saying this strategy is one that I’ve seen used most often in ROTO type leagues. Of course, it can still be used in head-to-head leagues, but I personally have never used this strategy outside of ROTO. The simplest explanation for this strategy is you will be entirely skipping or avoiding, usually, one category for your entire draft. The most common categories I’ve seen people punt are either stolen bases and/or saves. The reason I put and/or is that while it is most common to punt only one category, I have seen people punt multiple categories in, mainly, ROTO leagues. Now you may find yourself asking, why would anyone want to punt a category in any league, let alone ROTO leagues? The thinking behind this strategy is by ignoring one or more categories, you can, in theory, bolster your other categories so much that you can easily dominate enough categories to propel your team to the top of the standings. With saying that, I have had success using this strategy; however, I have never won a league using this strategy. I’m also not saying it’s impossible to win a league using this strategy.
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This article got away from me slightly in that I wasn’t necessarily planning on talking about six different strategies initially. I started thinking about this article by listening to a few podcasts in the last couple of days and found myself shaking my head in disagreement with various strategies being discussed. I will say that there are dozens of possible methods you can use for fantasy baseball, and almost all can work as long as you put in the time to do the proper research. I have had varying degrees of success with various gameplay styles over the years, but where I have had the most success is trusting in my analysis and projections. In most leagues I join, I like to let the league dictate what strategy I will use, meaning if I enter a league where everyone is selling, I’ll buy, or vice versa. I have found that people who are eager to experiment, more often than not, will find a way to shoot themselves in the foot, so who am I to stand in their way? I have learned to adapt and grow as a fantasy player, so I started branching out writing articles. Maybe it’s my genuine desire to help others, or perhaps it’s my insane belief that what I’m writing makes sense to others, but either way, writing is something I’ve always enjoyed doing. I hope you found a couple of interesting ideas to incorporate into your fantasy gameplay, and I thank you for reading!
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As always, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @drunkenangelz.